How to Compare ETF vs Property for FIRE in Australia

Use this framework to compare both paths with the same savings rate, time horizon, and tax settings.

1. Keep assumptions symmetric

Start with identical annual savings, inflation, spending, and horizon. Then only vary ETF-specific and property-specific drivers so the comparison stays fair.

2. Track both wealth and timing

Compare final net worth and FIRE year together. One strategy can deliver a higher ending balance while the other reaches the target earlier.

3. Stress-test key variables

Test realistic ranges for growth, interest rates, and inflation. Prefer scenarios that remain robust across multiple conditions.

4. Use staged contributions when your income changes

A single contribution number can hide reality. If your savings capacity changes over time, model it in stages so outcomes are closer to what you can actually execute.